In the East, there is a complete mismatch.

In my mind, the Dream  is a clear favorite to eliminate the Fever.  Having won the regular season series four to nothing – although getting lucky with scheduling – Atlanta has also been one of the hottest teams in the WNBA for weeks now, and the only team to sweep Round 1 series (over Connecticut, at the same exact +110 odds).

Katie Douglas will score a bunch of threes on the Dream. Tamika Catchings will give them a good fight. But she’s not big or strong enough to counter a core of De Souza and Lyttle, and a little Bales.  As for Jessica Davenport, watch the video report on Game 1 (July 19th) on WNBA.com to see why she can be a major liability against a team as defensively aggressive as Atlanta. Yes, I mean the ridiculous turnover right under her own basket for a McCoughtry steal and point blank layup which confirmed the final score of 84-74, a ten point win for the Dream.

The problem most teams have with the Dream is that, despite being touted as an Angel-led squad, lately Atlanta performs better when McCoughtry is on the bench. Apparently, this team is a lot deeper than it was getting the credit for just a month ago, fighting the Chicago Sky for the final playoff spot in the East and available at +2000 to win the Championship. What happened when Lyttle got back, healthy, was that an already huge frontline of (the deceptively skilled) De Souza and Bales got complemented by efforts from one of the top defenders in basketball. The former competitive track and field runner, Sancho Lyttle is disgustingly quick for her size. Almost Tamika Catchings quick, and with a comparably dependable jumper.

While Indiana is still regarded as a team with two All-Stars in Douglas and Catchings, a team that partook in the most entertaining Finals series in the history of the WNBA back in 2009 (losing 2-3 to Phoenix), a team with home court advantage and a 13-4 home record… They are clearly an underdog to Atlanta.

Below are quick stats for the three competitive games the two teams played during the regular season. Their final meeting in Indiana had no playoff implications and therefore I’m discarding the stats from that game.

  • Quarters won/lost for Atlanta: 9-3
  • Atlanta has made more Free Throws each time
  • Atlanta has collected more Rebounds each time
  • 86-80 win on Saturday, August 27, 2011 at Conseco Fieldhouse was the first time in 10 games between Atlanta and Indiana when visitors picked up the W.

The tables have turned. Indiana is a paper tiger. I expect Lin Dunn’s girls to be giving their exit interviews in Atlanta on Sunday night. -120 is true odds. Anything better than -110 is good. Anything better than evens is great value.

Bet accordingly.