With regular season ending on Saturday, it’s time to preview the WNBA playoff matchups. First, let’s talk about the Eastern Conference
playoff picture
East: Round 1
Indiana vs New York (2-1)
80-81 (HL) 11.06
86-80 (AW) 12.06
82-71 (HW) 14.08
Indiana is a 60-65% favorite. Unless the Liberty play out of their mind and manage to move up from their current #4 spot in the East, it’s going to be a very short postseason for them. Unfortunately, the odds will reflect this. Line guess: Indiana -200 New York +160. No value in series bet if my guess is correct.
Connecticut vs Atlanta (2-2)
99-92 (HW) 01.08
88-94 (AL) 20.08
96-87 (HW) 22.08
85-74 (AL) 07.09
team with HC wins this series 55% of the time… so as of this moment Connecticut a very slight (52-53%) favorite… If they hold on, my line guess for the series is -140 Conn Atl +120. Take Atlanta.
East: Round 2
(Here’s where it gets good!)
Indiana vs Atlanta (0-3)
74-84 (AL) 19.06
80-86 (HL) 28.08
90-92 (AL) 31.08
Atlanta a 55-60% favorite.
I expect the Dream to make it 4-0 this coming Sunday, and challenge Connecticut for #2 spot (and HC in the 2-3 first round series). Both teams have loaded veteran lineups and with no home cooking calls Atlanta should be an automatic bet with the way the regular season series played out. Line guess: Indiana -140, Atlanta +120. BIG BET on Atlanta.
Indiana vs Connecticut (3-2)
75-70 (HW) 26.06
90-78 (HW) 13.07
71-76 (AL) 18.07
69-58 (AW) 29.07
55-83 (AL) 03.09
Indiana a 55% favorite. I expect the odds to be right on. If I’m wrong and the Sun are more of an underdog, I’ll take Connecticut at +140 or better for medium stakes.
Atlanta vs New York (2-3)
88-94 (HL) 05.06
79-58 (AW) 12.06
87-81 (HW) 01.07
69-91 (AL) 13.07
75-85 (HL) 03.08
To me this is a 50-50 series, where it makes sense to bet the underdog. After each game. So I might end up making three bets here, each at plus money, and hope for the underdog to come through every time. Value hunting, baby.
Connecticut vs New York (1-2)
59-68 (HL) 16.07
85-79 (HW) 20.07
81-84 (AL) 19.08
This series is a true toss-up. Can I bet against either team producing a sweep? Their Sunday matchup will determine the playoff seeding in the EC and might make Atlanta a favorite to raise the EC banner. This happens if both away teams win (IF the Dream manages to take over the #2 spot and gain HC over Connecticut)
Disclaimer: remember I’m prejudiced towards the Dream and the Mercury. However, since both teams’ regular season records are eclipsed by Indiana and Minnesota respectively, I still think the value in betting them is there.
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